California primary might finally matter

You see it on the news, on billboards and on your Facebook feed. You hear about it from teachers, from the radio and from your hairstylist. The presidential primary campaign is underway, and it has saturated the media to what feels like an unprecedented degree, as grass-root campaigns and controversial candidates steal the spotlight.

Part of the ruckus is over the various primaries and caucuses. However, the California primaries matter far less than one would expect, especially in the Democratic primary. The Republican nomination, on the other hand, is still up for grabs. It may be up to California voters to influence the outcome.

It’s almost inevitable that Hillary Clinton’s lead over Bernie Sanders is insurmountable, and her lead certainly won’t change by June, when the California primaries will be held. Clinton currently has just over 1,200 delegates pledged to her, while Sanders has a mere 574 as of March 10, according to the Associated Press. For California’s primaries to matter to Democrats, the race still has to be close; with 30 other states that will be visited prior, the chances of that are slim.

Once a lead is gained, typically it becomes a speeding train that gains momentum as donors, voters and politicians climb aboard and funding dries up for the loser.

There are some popular myths about previous elections. Obama did in fact win Super Tuesday in 2008, and though Clinton had a lead going in of 220-214, Obama flipped the race to 1,063-1,052, and Clinton was unable to bring the race close again.

For the Republican primaries to be influential on the national stage, the fragmented GOP runners would need to maintain their infighting and keep the race close for many more months, then consolidate on a solid reliable nominee. They are on track for that, though it still seems unlikely. Donald Trump has more delegates pledged to him than any other Republican candidate, but his lead is only 99 delegates more than that of Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, who are at 359 and 151 delegates, respectively.

It’s clear California’s primaries will have only a fraction of the impact you would like to think they will have this year for Democrats, but Republican voters in California must turn out in force if they wish to affect political change.